PK for The ISI (Problems "Kreated" for The Intelligent Secular Indian)

Aamir Khan. His movies are a must see; even if they don't make the mark. As an actor he takes great pains to become the character he has to portray and as a person is well liked by all across the Nation. He is actually so popular that one would have thought that PM Modi would appoint him as a junior minister in his cabinet in some capacity or the other given Aamir's crusade for social justice with his TV serial called "Satyamev Jayate" (Truth will Prevail). Well! that's exactly what's not happening today and his film "PK" has stirred up a controversy within the supposed religious class of India. In fact a prominent Indian politician has actually accused the Pakistani Intelligence ISI of having funded it to incite religious hate by Hindus against their own. I think the larger unspoken anger is at what the BJP has been touting as "Love Jihad" as it depicts the leading lady of the film hailing from a staunch Hindu family falling in love with and marrying a Pakistani Muslim boy; and her family vehemently opposing and subsequently accepting the match in the end.

There have been a few movies made earlier where the male lead is cast as Hindu Indian and the girl lead is Muslim Pakistani and those have never had an issue with anyone; including the sizeable muslim population in India. Then what is the Problem?

It's actually a movie with a social message conveyed comically that religion feeds and grows on ignorance and gullibility. It has created more misunderstandings and hatred than any other social division created by mankind. It's true. So what's the problem?

The movie has been made by the same team that made the "Munnabhai" series; namely Vidhu Vinod Chopra and Raju Hirani; both Hindus. The script writers have made fun of virtually every religion practiced in India. But the footage was hogged by Hinduism. But then, we are the only "religion" that worships just about anything in the name of God. And, to me, that is just great. To top that, many believe that Hinduism is not even a religion but a way of life and every person who decides to live life respecting God and his creation is in the true sense a Hindu. So, what's the problem?

The guy getting the stick is Aamir Khan - but guys, he is a paid actor who does his job well; and in this movie he is an alien with no religion of his own. The same actor has portrayed so many different characters in the past; and for most of them has earned the title of a true patriot. If that was never a problem then; then what really the problem now?

India's unity relies on its secularity; and by and large most intelligent Indians are proud of that freedom. We are a supposedly democratic Country as well where one is allowed to express without repression. I don't think fanning a problem is a way to grab publicity for anyone. India has a lot of other real problems to solve. Let's not create new ones that serves no one's interest. Let's grow up and really learn to respect the God that made us and not the ones made by us Mankind.

It's my last blog for 2014 and I would like to thank each and every one of my readers for the encouraging messages that I have received. Wishing you the very best for 2015.

No Guilt Profit

“Have you considered Social Impact Investing as an asset class?” is what my friendly banker asked me. “You mean in something like Facebook or Snapchat or Twitter? Certainly making a lot of social and financial impact from what I hear” I joked. He smiled knowing well that I did not mean what I said. He was right in his assumption. I have been toying to get into this space for the last couple of years; not as an investor, but as an active participant with direct involvement in some part of the process that leads to creating a social entrepreneur. It’s something that that is so dear to my heart; to make a positive difference – where scale really does not matter. It’s also been a personal belief that social enterprise and not charities are a better way of serving Society, as the elements of profitability and accountability force in the concepts of efficiency and scale. (Our self serving God men apply this rule selfishly and very successfully).   But, on a positive note, any enterprise that allows for personal fulfillment in climbing Maslov's pyramid and deliver the most basic need "a positive return on investment" is an exercise in "profit without guilt". I have read news and stories of some fabulous work being done in this area; and it would gratify me a great deal to raise a fund to ignite socially impacting ideas to reality.  Somehow, my CV has held no appeal to any of the organizations that I have applied to; and my involvement has been restricted to making modest contributions through crowd-funding to ventures that are being run by young professionals, and achieving a lot of good. So, yes, my eyes lit up, when Mr. Banker handed me an invite to attend an event on Social Impact Investing – where, I was told, I would meet up with several interesting personalities connected with this space; and if not – I was in for a fabulous themed dinner organized by Chef Hemant Oberoi himself. What an incentive – intellectual and/or intestinal gratification.

Interesting personalities is an understatement. I met some magnificent minds, both young and old that evening. What I heard from them was a revelation; something that shook and stirred my soul enough to put down their views in my blog as a mark of salute to their enterprise.

It struck him that the art of weaving hand knotted rugs would soon die out in Rajasthan; as the people involved in the weaving process were from under privileged minorities. To survive, weaving was just not enough means to earn money or respect. It was not that there was no money in the trade; in fact there was lots of it; but most of the money was sliced out by the middlemen and end traders. So to set the system right; defying caste, community and family ostracization; he created an organization that now contracts over 45,000 artisans as job work contractors spread over 600 villages in 6 states of India, producing 500,000 rugs every year. For Nand Kishore Chaudhary; the journey began in 1978 with a modest capital of Rs 5,000 and some space in the backyard that he borrowed from his father to set up 2 looms and 9 weavers. His growing proximity to the “low caste” weavers disturbed his family; but for him, it was a lesson in understanding of their joys and pains – which is why he feels - he has been able to achieve the scale at which “Jaipur Rugs” operates today. His social business model is a matter of dissertation at top ivy-league institutes; and while he has won tons of awards and accolades with a few brickbats too – none of it seems to have impacted his simplicity or humanness.

 The second man who impressed me was probably as old as the first; somewhere in his early sixties – at least from his looks. He started an enterprise just 3 years and not 3 decades ago with a capital of around Rs 30 million that today commands a valuation of Rs 300 million hearing which several side conversations went into silence. His business vision took seed as a solution to providing clean energy to the millions of radio towers that provide uninterrupted mobile telecommunication capability to the many million cell phone users across India. “Do you know how much diesel is consumed each year to keeps these towers powered?” asked Sushil Jiwarajka. “Close to half a billion liters. Do you know that there are over a billion handsets that are in use in India as we speak” he added. “Do you know half the diesel meant for these towers is stolen by the diesel mafia?” His Company OMC (Omnigrid Micropower Company) set up small solar and battery power units for these towers and the villages in the immediate vicinity. He told us stories of places in India which had mobile phones but no electricity and the sufferance of the people, especially women and children because of the lack of power. Some of the stories came straight out of unbelievable but true; like how a woman accidently poisoned her crying child at night - thinking she was giving him milk to quell his hunger. He then described the change that a single light, fan and electric point from a 15 Watt battery in each house made to the entire social behavior of the village they resided in. He was told he would wind up his company in less than a year as people would not pay for the power as well as destroy the infrastructure he was creating incited by the power lords in the area. In fact, the empowered people have stood up against the power mafia and have taken up the safety and security of the mini solar plants the same way they would protect their own homes. Payments for the power are prompt based on a pay as you use model. There was a time when getting a single rupee to fund his idea was an exercise in futility and today there are large international funds wanting to invest in his venture. Social entrepreneurship has been gratifying for him and his investors.

The third person I stood up to cheer was a young man of 23. He walked up confidently to the dias and started off by saying “A year or so back, my company did a turnover of Rs 50,000 a month. Today it does around Rs. 5 million a month. I intend to take the turnover to Rs 50 million a month by next year end and raise US$ 100 million on the stock market soon thereafter”. I have seen and heard many confident young visionaries and that did not impress me much. But, this boyish looking man, an engineer from MIT (USA), winner of multiple citations and awards from heads of states including ex-President of India Mr. Abdul Kalam is blind from birth. His parents hail from rural Andhra Pradesh and were advised by well wishers to dump the blind child in the well, as he would be a burden to look after. Thankfully, the parents of Srikanth Bolla did not heed to the advice and today he runs a company that produces packaging and consumer products made from tree waste. But wait, that is not the impressive part either. Most of the people working in the company are physically or intellectually challenged. He may be visually challenged, but that has not stopped him from understanding how to create a manufacturing process that can be more efficiently run by the disabled than people we call normal. Now that really requires some vision. There are some 80 million disabled people in India and Srikanth serves as a role model that provides them with the self esteem that they are not a burden to society. Incidentally, he is not out do any one a favour - he truly believes that a disabled person is actually more efficient than a normal person because of the passion and commitment level of the former to have been entrusted with responsibility. Now tell him how can one not stand up and applause at his achievements?

I met several people that evening who have given up top paying jobs with multinationals to pursue social entrepreneurship. By no means are they driven by altruism; and by no means greed either. They have understood that the intellectual capital in terms of adaptive talent is phenomenal in what most describe as the bottom of the pyramid population in India. That segment not only presents a sea of opportunity but an ocean of pent up demand; and servicing that simply - cost effectively - in sync with the social and natural environment is equal to a universe of smiles for all.  

Let me end by saying, the dinner did not disappoint either and I left with a lot of food for thought. 

Executive Uber MBA in an hour.

It was my first ever Uber cab ride - courtesy my banker. He was insistent that I attend an event organized by the bank; and I was adamant on not driving all the way to the Taj Mahal hotel from North Mumbai, and so, the ride. I was surprised that Uber was operating after what I believed was a total shut down of services across India post the cab-rape incident in Delhi.

“Namaste Sir; my name is PP and welcome to my Uber Cab. Which road would you want me to use to take you to the destination – the fastest of course is the Western Express Highway” is how my driver greeted me. He looked about 30 something; his accent told me that he was from North India and his smile told me that I am in for a ride where there would be an almost one sided nonstop conversation for the next hour and a half (that I had estimated to reach the hotel). I told him to take Linking Rd. as the traffic would be minimal given the afternoon hour at which we were traveling. No argument or dirty look. Just an “as you wish Sir”. I think he logged in the path on the phone app. and we were on our way.

I think he was waiting for his cue to open his mouth, and I just played into his hands by asking him how Uber was back in service so fast after being shut down by the authorities? PP said that the Company had given an assurance of complying with the dictates of the authorities within a specified period and all the drivers who already held a taxi-driver badge, licenses and permits as required by the authorities had been asked to resume accepting orders. The badges are issued by a central agency and not the State authority I learnt; to keep a better check on the antecedents of the drivers – whichever State they hail from. My retort was that in that case, following the verification directive stipulated would be a great way to keep out rogues and would be villains from offering taxi service and avoid Delhi type incidents. PP looked back flashing a sarcastic smile and said “Do you really believe that Sir? It is usually the good guy who does not get the badge. The ones with a record are almost always well connected to a political persona at whatever level and barking orders are issued for their badge. The Delhi incident was not the first ever in a cab, but a first in an Uber cab. How come such directives were never issued before? You can understand Sir what I am trying to say. Uber has no political patronage and as of now most drivers working for other cab companies are shifting in hordes to Uber, which is hurting other cab companies a lot. Now I hope you understand what I am saying Sir” and he looked back again to see the expression on my face.

He continued “You know; if Uber had asked every cab it engages to put its logo on the cab, then, every one of them would have been stoned or burnt. Thank God! None of the cabs are identifiable. Sir, what can I say; ever since Uber has come it has been a boon to the taxi driver. We make lots of money even though our ride costs 30% less than the “Kali-peeli” and radio cabs. The drivers who sign up for Uber are given lessons in etiquettes to customers. We are told not to expect nor ask for tips. No money has to exchange between the driver and guest. Sir, if you don’t like my service or you think I am taking you the wrong way to your destination – you can complain about me and I will not get paid and you will not get charged. Uber can verify whatever you are saying because I have to log in the path I will take to reach you to your destination; and on service, it is your word against mine. On the other hand we drivers also can rate customers. If someone is abusive or misbehaves we can put a black mark against that customer. 5 such marks and Uber will blacklist the customer. If I carry a “drunken” guest and that guest pukes in my car – I have to just send the picture to my controller and I am authorized then to get the car washed and cleaned at a service station. The charges are collected from the guest. But under no means am I allowed to de-board my guest, until I reach the guest to the destination. Can you believe Sir, 2000 + cabs in Mumbai are controlled by just 5 Uber employees? Sir, people have liked our service so much that quite a few don’t use their own cars. I have a few regulars and when I ask them why they use Uber, I am told that the price they pay per month is at times less than the fuel and salary of the driver they incur.” That was an interesting lesson in hospitality and the emerging sharing economy. Strangely: I heard the exact same thing about Uber just a few days back from the CEO of a near billion dollar valuation company in the ticket booking space. Had he taken a ride with PP as well? Actually he had been educated by an Uber driver in Delhi. Are guys like PP Uber drivers or Uber Ambassadors? 

By this time, I was curious to learn more about his experience with the other cabs he had operated. “Sir, I started off with the black and yellow (BY) cabs and switched to operating a radio cab no sooner they came in the market. I thought life would be better driving a nicer air conditioned car rather than the ancient rickety BY cabs. But I soon discovered that I was actually jumping from the frying pan straight into fire. I was nothing more than a contracted slave. To make the same amount of money as I would earlier, I had to work twice as many hours. Then, there were situations where I could not take a fare because the time given to me to reach the pickup point was just impractical. No Sir, I could not refuse a fare punched by the company; and if I did there was a fine of Rs. 50. So the procedure was to call the Company call centre and explain why the fare was being refused. The time it took to complete that process would add up to more than just paying the penalty. I can keep telling you the problems I faced Sir, but never mind. I could leave the BY cab owner anytime I wanted but in this case I had signed a bond. Since I like to learn (I am sure talk is what he meant), I use to ask my foreign guests how cab services worked overseas. I learnt about Uber from them, and when I heard that it was starting in Mumbai, I applied as well. Sir, I have now booked my own car and I am pretty sure the way things are improving in India; I will own 15 cars by 2018”. Now that was a pretty specific and well laid out business plan. “Good luck PP; so you will then engage 15 drivers under you? Then, I guess your life will be set?” Yikes! Why did I ask that?

“Set? No Sir, it’s just the beginning. You see Sir, I always wanted to be a leader and ride in a car with a beacon and have gun carrying bodyguards following me around. My plan is not to engage just any 15 drivers. I will go back to my village and engage the Kids of all the village influencers. What do they earn in the village? Hardly anything. If I pay them each Rs. 25,000 a month they will be called millionaires back home. All the best girls will want to marry them. Their life will be set. For girls in the village – Mumbai and Delhi is like staying in America. Trust me Sir, even after paying them that much, and paying car EMI, I will still make a profit. To fight an election in my area with the influential people backing me will not cost much. My profit of 1 year will be some Rs 50 lakhs – more than enough Sir. I will fight as an independent and I will win. I will do anything to make my dream come true Sir. If I want, I can ask my family to fund my dreams; I come from a landed family where my father is a high caste leader. But, if I do ask him; he will play me the way he wants and I don't want my views to be influenced by anyone.” Wow! Now that was a hard core power plan I had just heard. I could not resist but compliment his confidence. Oops!

“Confidence; yes Sir, I am very confident about myself. I have trained myself to be physically and mentally strong. When I was back in Lucknow; I spent two years with the “Naga-Babas” (a highly evolved ascetic who has renounced everything including clothes) and they taught me that if you have control on mind and body you can achieve anything. I have fasted for ten-ten days at a time - several times. I can beat up a guy twice my size. You don’t believe me, do you? But, Sir, why will I lie to you. I really can”. I just nodded not wanting to open up another conversation. “You know why I want to join politics Sir?” and without waiting for my response “when I first came to Mumbai, I got employed as a driver with a person who was friends with a minister’s son. They had studied together. My employer was barely 23 or 24 but in those days he got a loan of Rs 500 crores to start of a company. Sir; he was a nobody – lived in a rented house and had a second hand beaten up car. All he did was pimp around for the minister’s friends and today he has one of the largest real estate companies in India. Sir, nothing is hidden from the driver. I knew then itself that to achieve something big in this world a person needs power – money follows power. Look at Mr. Kejriwal. Sir, he is my hero. He stood up for good of the common man like me; and while he lost the elections, we cannot forget how he took on the battle with very big and very powerful entities. See, I even have the “Aam Aadmi Party” cap. He made too many enemies and everyone plotted to bring him down. If he fights for election again – I will support him any and every way I can”.

“So you are not very happy that Mr. Modi became PM?” I asked. “He is a good man Sir. A lot like Kejriwalji. And of course he is a seasoned politician. Kejriwalji should not have taken a “panga” with him. That was his biggest mistake. Mr. Modi will do a lot of good for India. I just know it. This Country will progress. But, I don't like anyone else in his Party. You know why he won Sir? His name. Yes Sir, his name is so easy on the tongue to chant and all his slogans and jingles were designed to give strength to his name. They were so good and catchy that they got embedded in the brain and that is how there was a Modi wave in this Country. Sir have you observed that when he speaks to people in India he wears saffron clothes and delivers his speech like a preacher. He has given up his family, he has no children, so there is no visible ulterior motive in his actions. That's why people believe him and trust him.  But after 5 years he must go. Unless the ruling party changes every 5 years corruption will never go from our Country. Look at the Congress. It was a good party once upon a time. But because it controlled the centre for so many years – it started taking us people for granted. No party should take people for granted. Leaders who cannot respect the people they lead are not leaders. I will be a good leader Sir. I will work for the people and improve their life. I will make sure people don’t have to run to cities to get a better life. What they think is a better life is actually hell. Look at this City Sir, there is no oxygen. There are no trees so how can there be oxygen. Back home we have gardens and greenery. Food is pure and much cheaper than here. We have time to meet friends and family. Nothing but anger and stress here Sir. No wonder there are so many crimes. But, things are changing back home as well. People are selling land meant for producing food to make factories and new homes. We will all die because of what we are doing. We cannot eat money. I have seen my friends build palatial homes and buy cars and everything from money they got selling their ancestral land. Then in a couple of years they are broke. All the money spent. Today their palatial home is on sale, but it is not enough to buy the land they sold back.” Simplistic but true view of political and people psyche I thought.

“Sir, you must think I am a Mr. Know-it-all? Sir, I am a good judge of people. I meet so many new people every day. Good, bad, happy sad, pious, crooks, all sorts Sir. I can tell by the face, walk, talk, sitting pose what kind of person is sitting in my cab”. I dared not to ask what he thought of me. “I make friends with my talk and leave such an impression that no one can forget me. I like studying people. That is how I will be able to influence people. Just like Modiji. They simply will not be able to say “No” to me. You know Sir, I can charm any woman I like. But, I don’t. I think the minute a woman comes into my life, my whole plan of becoming who I want will go for a toss. That’s why I have a girlfriend. She was a hooker once, but I reformed her. I have set up a Chinese food stall for her back in Kolkatta. Now she and her family earn a decent living. She came here to join films and ended up in the flesh trade to support her stay here and a chance to get a part in a movie. She comes from a good family. Her parents don’t know what she did here; and I threaten her that if she strays again I will tell them what she did here. Now her younger brother is old enough to look after the stall so I am thinking of calling her to Mumbai to drive the car which I am buying. Women driver will be in demand now – especially after the Delhi incident. But, I have told her no marriage and if she wants kids, I will not give them my name. I will make her sign a contract to that effect else she will haul me in for rape someday. I just cannot trust an angry woman. For her, I am her husband. But Sir; though I don't believe in caste etc, I want my children to be from pure stock. I want to educate them at the best school and colleges in India and America. I want to give them all that I did not have. I don't want them living here when they grow up - I want them to stay in America. There if you are educated and willing to work hard, you can become a billionaire without cheating. Anyway Sir, we are a minute away from your destination.”      

We ended the journey. Just 10 minutes behind schedule. As I was leaving the cab he said “Sir, one day in this very cab I will find my financier who will help me achieve my dreams”. Did he read my mind that I was attending a conference on “Social Impact Investing”? “Thank you PP. It has been a very interesting an educational trip riding with you. Hope someday soon I will be riding in your cab again” I said. “Most certainly Sir. I will give you a good point and you give me one too – if you think I deserve it. I value my Uber rating very much. And Sir, you will certainly read of me as an independent elected MP in UP in the 2019 elections. Please don’t forget me” he said; with an ear to ear brimming smile. I left him with an amused smile knowing that I had just fast tracked an Uber MBA from a real life “White Tiger”*who will achieve whatever he told me – at any cost.

‘* The White Tiger -  by Arvinda Adiga

1 Lakh = 100,000

1 crore = 10,000,000

"Interesting Times" let it stay.

While the world economies are tumbling down, slipping on Oil I suppose; by a miracle of sorts the WPI (Wholesale Price Index) in India - a measure of inflation has fallen to ZERO in December of 2014. It's hard for me to believe that 'cause even the vegetable and grocery vendors must be working in tandem with the statisticians; so, while the prices of items forming a part of the index have come down - most other items have gone up - making me feel poorer by the day. 

Around 20.12% of the basket consists of primary essentials; these includes food articles such as cereals, meat, fish, fruits and vegetables. It also includes non-food articles such as cooking oil, cotton, jute and minerals. The next big group is fuel and power (14.91%) and this includes elements such as electricity, mineral oils and coal. Items such as kerosene, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas and petrol also fall in this category. However, the biggest group is manufactured goods (64.9%). There are many sub-groups in this category; some of the main ones are chemical and chemical products, basic metals, alloys and metal products, food products, machinery and machine tools and textiles. It just goes to say that at a household level, the impact of inflation reduction is unnoticable.  

The Finance Minister wants to see me and most of the wage earning class poorer too and it's trying very hard to force the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut benchmark interest rates based on the supposed lowering of the inflation level a to tame numbers; and thereby set in motion a domino of events in the back offices of the banking community to cut interest rates on savings and lending. The borrowing community would be of course be delighted if the rates come down; and those borrowers not intending to return the money would be in a state of ecstasy. But; for the average "Joe" who does not have many avenues to grow his money to keep up with or beat inflation, except maybe keeping it securely (hypothetical view nowadays) in a bank saving account or bank instrument - or investing in a debt fund; seeing interest rates come down would be a big hit. To be fair; it may be benefit first time home buyers. I disagree (and it's my view) as the real beneficiary is the real estate developer who can now push more of his over priced inventory at an even higher price. High interest rates have been the sole barrier to cooling off  a real estate market which actually deserves a massive downward correction to make homes affordable for the real user. 

With weak global cues creating a run on the stock market and our currency; the guiding star call WPI may suddenly show a very different picture next month and hopefully in his infinite wisdom, the Governor of RBI will not yield to the pressure.

In my view, the high interest is not the real culprit for the woes of the service and manufacturing sector. It is the way the financial institutions lend and the lopsided taxation and administration policy that should take the blame for lower production and higher inflation numbers that are haunting the nation.

First of all; India is not the only emerging economy with a high interest cost structure. In fact at times it is the high rate of savings encouraged by the high interest rates that has drawn money to financial instruments raised for funding social infrastructure. Then again, Indians have never been averse to paying high interest rates or returns to lenders either; else, private equity players would not have set up camp in India. To make high interest rates effective for borrowers; banking has to consider a long repayment cycle (10+ years) with a step up repayment plan based on the project completion, start and ramp up life cycle of the project funded.

Second, national statistics always remind me of an "Akbar - Birbal" story where the emperor asks his minister "tell me how many crows on the tree?" The reply is a specific and exact number which baffles the emperor; who asks again "how can you be sure?". The clever minister says "if there are less then some just flew away and if more some may have just flown in". So does a falling IIP (Index of Industrial Production) suggest that industrial output is really falling? If that be the case then inflation should have cooled long back. But reality suggests just the opposite. Consumption patterns have remained virtually the same if not increase, despite the increasing costs. Did the "black" economy have something to do with it? For those with plenty of unreported incomes, does it really make a difference if tomatoes sell for Rs. 10 a kg or Rs.100? By the same token, was the IIP under-reported because a lot of goods and service production was "diverted" to the underground economy? Or then again, are the statistics being thrown at us some intelligently fixed numbers to justify a particular action (in this case cutting of interest rates). If you think it's not possible, read what Michael Lewis had to say on how Greece got into the European Union (http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010#)  by "fixing" its economy with the help and advice of a gold plated US Banker.

There is no doubt that the current government is trying to force more than a couple of issues to usher in the "Good days". First; cut imports without raising duties (as a member of WTO raising duties would be unfair practice). Second; raise exports as well without technically violating WTO norms. A forced depreciation of currency helps both of the above. Third, increase domestic manufacturing capacity to satisfy the "Make in India" dream which in turn drives up employment. Fourth, drive up domestic consumption to force up demand that encourages producers to set up shop to produce; and do it without decreasing taxes. To do so make interest the culprit.

This may be a simplistic view, but the focus should be on dismantling the unnecessary harassment systems put in place for producers which add the cost of corruption to goods and services as much as affect quality of the produce itself. Next, the direct and indirect tax system needs to be linked to the "Indian" psyche which loudly says two facts:

First; my taxes are not used productively so why pay it?

Second; why should I pay for what I do not use?

India is an ideal nation for indirect and not direct taxes when it comes to taxing an individual; and there are a billion plus of them. By reducing personal taxes there is no reason to cheat the "unfair" system where 95% of the population eligible to pay taxes does not pay a single rupee in direct taxes. Interest on the other hand is a form of assured social security for most of the wage earning nation where the earning differential between the super rich and supposed middle class is something that even statistics will find it hard to put a percentage on. 

Oh! those Russians.

Oil is threatening to go below the US$ 60 per barrel mark and there is a smile on the Saudi kingdom - why? Don't know. But then; instead of beaming a smile, why are the stock markets around the work sulking? Not sure. But;  could it be that the world is bracing itself for an economic catastrophe based on indications of negative or low growth? Each day, I hear a new story which contradicts the other on reasons explaining this global anomaly. I for one am quite unhappy. Not only has the falling Sensex shaved off some of my paper wealth but the falling rupee (now at 62+ to the USD) has made my holiday overseas a trifle more expensive. 

But if there is one person expressing a greater disgust than me on world events; then, it has to be President Putin of Russia. With economic sanctions preventing his Country from selling oil and gas to the west over the Ukraine crisis, the Russian Rouble seems to be playing “Russian Roulette” with itself shooting itself down to new lows with each passing day. 

The West may not like them now; but Russians have been and are always welcome to India; even before the Russian ladies became desirable eye candy, and even though the strong brotherly equation that we once enjoyed with the former USSR block is all but gone. So; "Dobro pozhalovat' v Indiyu Prezidenta Putina" (welcome to India President Putin). India still believes that there is a lot that we can do together specially in the areas of technology, military and energy security as well as making many Indian women happy by getting direct access to a large source of good quality big sized diamonds at much cheaper rates than through the western run cartels.

Since it is clear that India is pretty much the big buyer; which suits Russia under the current economic situation; India will have to fork out a lot of its forex reserves to pay for its imports from Russia. Well; Russian goods are not necessarily the best in the world – and to pay top dollar with a weakening Rupee may not be such an attractive line to pursue. Then; what if we revive the Rupee-Rouble trade? The scope of trade is virtually unlimited. However, this system has been thoroughly abused by both sides based on the dollar arbitrage that could be extracted. The solution of course is to create a benchmarked trading currency that involves all the BRICS Countries as the trading problem faced by them all is the same. India would love to trade with China as well in a non dollar currency. The foundation of the BRICS bank itself is based on solving this situation so why wait? If the world can accept a Bitcoin then a BricsCoin too can become real.

While deals have been supposedly struck for purchase of crude; nuclear technology; joint weapons development; trading in diamonds and agri-goods; India will have to extract firm commitments from Russia to invest in Infrastructure over here for the whole package to be equitable on both sides. Our Prime Minister has been compared to Mr. Putin in many ways and he in turn has expressed his love for Russians in more than one way through his numerous tweets. The relationship suits both nations.  Will it then create a new tectonic shift in the Indo-US relations? On the surface - unlikely; but then Russia never expected such a hard western stand either. In my view this may just be the relief valve required to bring some calm in an anxious world where no one looses face.

With the Rupee heading towards 70 to a dollar and the Rouble racing up to nearly the same, my next summer holiday maybe spent exploring the beauties of Russia - only if the Russians can accept our humble Rupee as sweetly as the US Dollar. Oh! those Russians. 

Shit! It's actually money down the drain

While oil prices are going down internationally; energy experts are suggesting that rather than reducing price of petrol and diesel – which in turn will lead to a much higher fuel bill (negating the advantage) as well as more pollution – the interest of India will be better served by using the surplus to fund the upgrade of existing inefficient power stations and refineries; as well as fund research, development and build out of infrastructure that uses alternate renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. The experts have my vote on this one and I add that the surplus could also go towards building cleaner and better public transport systems. http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/technology/transportation/public-transit/

 I stressed on public transport system because it is easiest to convert to using alternate fuels. Recently Google stopped its research in renewable energy as it found that the cost of extracting energy from renewable sources is just not competitive enough in comparison to fossil fuels; and unless there was a paradigm shift in either technology or source – preferably both – it will be difficult to convert private users. To do so, money needs to go into research and vested interests are always there to make sure that money goes into making existing polluting technologies cleaner rather than work on a disruptive path breaking model. http://www.vox.com/2014/11/19/7247103/google-renewable-energy-research

Theoretically, nuclear power is the closest we have got to qualify as clean energy; but the dark side of its misuse and the control of efficient raw material to be used as fuel in the hands of few nations, makes it generally unviable. I cannot understand why it is so hard for people to realize that the pollution from a fossil fuel plant on a daily basis is far deadlier to millions than the dread of nuclear radiation to a contained population in case of an accident – which in statistical term has resulted in lesser deaths than air travel. If smaller and safer reactors were developed for civilian use; the threat of huge stockpiles of nuclear waste than can be processed for weapons too would go down to near zero as these materials are not easy to collect and transport. Well, India is doing the right thing by looking at increasing nuclear capacity with the help of the Russians.

India to build nuclear reactors with Russia - Al Jazeera

While it’s not practical in most countries; solar energy is being called India’s shale. With global warming India will probably receive more of it and taping it as a source of clean energy is a bright thing to do.  When a sunlight poor nation like Germany can extract almost 50% of its energy requirement from the sun, there is no reason why India cannot meet at least 25% of its energy requirements from the same source and at the same time cut down its pollution level significantly. But installation of solar plants is neither cheap nor space effective – especially in a heavily populated nation where land is required for agriculture as well to feed the billions. The most efficient technology in this spectrum too comes from the west. I am surprised that our IIT cadets can build billion dollar apps but have not been able to take a lead in this front to tap a source of energy that is abundant and free. (If any of you read it and work on it and succeed make sure to send me some shares for switching on this tube light in you). India should learn a lesson from Saudi Arabia that is already thinking ahead of the curve. While it sells expensive oil to the rest of the world; it’s thinking of harnessing solar power for its own internal energy requirements. http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/13/saudi-arabia-beat-us-low-cost-solar-punch/

If the Saudis have abundance of oil and sunlight; we too have another free energy source that we flush down the drain each day – excreta. With a billion plus population we produce an abundance of “pee” and “poop” and that is an almost free, unending and rich source of energy. The western world is perfecting fuel cells which use hydrogen extracted from – yes you guessed it – shit. It’s like oil – nothing gets wasted. After extraction of hydrogen and useful gases, the waste gets turned into water, compost to give back to the plants that sustain us. Now this is not a shitty idea but one that can make shit loads of money for the first movers willing to get their hands in this muck. https://www.engineeringforchange.org/news/2012/11/21/ten_ways_to_put_human_waste_to_use.html

This is the technology that India needs to procure from the US of A; where there have been quite a few advancements in this field, but not enough is being spent to make it commercially viable. Think of a future where the utility bills are linked to the shit one produces – the real thing and not the figurative one which too is produced in abundance. Now, if only we could convert that into something productive; India would be a land of billionaires.

                             

On a different note - would this not be great for India? Will sort out a whole lot of social problems. 

         

http://www.thetypical.com/2009/07/your-car-is-about-to-get-pissed.html

Your Car is About to Get Pissed

A scientist has developed a catalyst that can extract hydrogen from urine and says it could be used to power hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the near future. Garadine Botte hasn’t received much federal funding for her project, though she’s got some people in the Department of Defense interested. Now soldiers can work as a team to cool their overheated truck and then fuel it up.

One of hydrogen’s biggest stumbling blocks to use as an alternative fuel is the amount of energy needed to produce it. And then there’s the matter of distributing it. Botte says her gadget eliminates such problems because it’s small enough to integrate into an automobile. Urine is also readily available — your body produces two to three liters of it each day, and it is the most abundant form of waste on the planet. We could treat waste water while fueling our cars.

Finding Mr. Right (Developer) in the Wrong market

Now that investing in debt instruments is really not such a great idea in India (as a result of the revised taxation norms announced by the FM in July this year); my banker suggested I look at investing in a real estate (RE) fund as a diversification strategy. My answer to his suggestion was a plain and simple "No". My experience with having worked for a RE fund; then, having invested in a RE fund; and also having heard disaster stories of various RE funds; I was quite convinced that I had better chances of enjoying a swim with the sharks in the Red Sea than investing in any RE fund in India. A banker does not remain a banker for too long unless he is a good salesman and his suggestion was that I at least meet with the CEO of the fund and understand his investment ideology before giving up the idea. He was quite certain that I would change my view after hearing what the fund manager had to say as the fund's strategy was designed to succeed in a depressed market and deliver better than alpha return on an upswing. Well I thought - why not - if nothing else, I would learn something new from a fund manager who was confident of raising money for real estate in a market that is just beginning to shy away from it.

I am not a great fan of Indian developers in the RE space and I have lost quite a bit of my respect for PE funds in this space too. Between them; they have succeeded in hyper inflating values of land and building (any use) making housing a dream for the common man in addition to making the cost of living in India prohibitive. In their pursuit to extract super returns from the Indian markets the PE funds have created their own "Frankenstein".  When the era of PE in RE space set-in sometime 2005-6; I felt it would usher in a positive change in the way the real estate sector works in India. Transactions in "black" would gradually disappear; quality of construction would improve; planning of developments would improve; and the nexus between developer and non kosher source of funds would reduce. What I see happening is just the contrary - at an even grander scale - at least in the majority of projects. By no means am I saying that all developers are guilty of these sins. But to find the few good men in this market; is like finding a needle in a haystack. The biggest sufferers in this whole game apart from the consumer have been the foreign investors invested in the PE funds. The General Partners and managers running the fund have almost always walked away with heavy fees on a year on year basis whereas the investors have seen their investments return low single digit returns taking into account the rupee depreciation and developer defaults. No wonder Indian real estate has not been a good word in foreign money markets for quite some time now. Even our own rising stock markets seem to be treating listed RE development companies with bit of caution, knowing well that most of them may look good on the surface, but may have strong negative undercurrents beneath. 

So in this bleak market of real estate where there is an increasing murmur of "overbuilt and overpriced" being heard - what strategy would a fund manager employ to deliver great returns ethically? I asked this gentleman who visited me for his secret sauce recipe. He said that his rules were quite simple - 5 rules of Do's and 5 rules of Don'ts :

The Do list:
1. Involve the anchor investors in the decision making so that the smaller investors know that their interests are also taken care of.
2. Find projects in new growth corridors and stay away as far as possible from established development zones.
3. Deal with Developers having a size-able track record of quality completion, along with a near "clean" record with consumers; and, are also willing to sell transparently in what is called "all white" transactions. (I did not know this breed existed - but apparently it does).
4. Get in at land stage with step in clauses in case of developer default.
5. Most important - find developers that are real developers in terms of them having their own (in house) asset management, project management and design teams; sales team; liaison team; and all such people required to ensure the right, timely and quality end product.

The Don't List:
1. Stay away from luxury developments - be it retail, commercial or residential.
2. Stay away from Developers that have over committed themselves on large and/or super grand projects and he rattled a few names which made absolute sense to me but would scare the living daylights from most would be investors.
3. Stay away from projects where the land values are hyper-inflated.
4. Keep away from Developers that have received significant funding from foreign PE Funds by way of equity and/or quasi debt.
5. Don't do deals with developers offering exceptionally high returns or are agreeing to terms where very high returns are expected.

I almost reached for my cheque book, as I was certain that if the above investment ideology is followed, the fund would most certainly make money for its investors. Tempted as I was - I did not participate as the commitment expected was much larger than what my risk appetite could afford in terms of both quantum and time. My own investment ideology tells me that investing in the equity of listed RE development companies that meet the above norms makes better sense as most of them are totally undervalued  and also allow for self timed exits as per market conditions. Alternatively, wait a while for some REITs to list as in the current market; the acquisition price will have to correct itself to get the right returns expected by investors in this space. It is said that in India the price of real estate will never fall and that's the reason its an investment better than even gold. But, I think, like gold, it too should see a massive correction to bring back a balance that is distorted as of now and showing signs of developing into a sub-prime type of crisis. 

OPEC the boil over Oil

I had actually written this blog on the 26^th of Nov. 2014, the day before the OPEC conference  – but was unable to post it.

OPEC - I don't think any Western Strategist gave this oligopoly too many years of survival when it was formed in the 1960s. But it did; and has since then been a major influencer in shaping world events. Let me correct this phrase - it has been used by select vested parties to influence many world events. It made much of the Arab world rich beyond imagination; converted some third world nations into thriving economies; and made a few leaders super powerful both in wealth and at times terrorizing the world. But; mostly, the bulk of this oil wealth almost always migrated to developed western nations by way of military and infrastructure supplies and build out. And, what was left over was deployed by OPEC members to acquire real estate, stocks and bonds in the developed world making it more developed – stronger - powerful. The losers in this wheel of fortune were the less developed nations that needed the oil to grow but never got more than a trickle of the petro dollars flowing back to them.

I wonder if the 1967 and 1973 wars between the Arabs and Israelis not happened had OPEC not been formed; or for that matter would Nigeria and Indonesia have been truly democratic nations much of their independent life for the same reason. Would there have been peace and prosperity in the Middle East; no economic hardships in Venezuela and Indonesia; and no terror funding by certain leaders had this body not formed? Hard to say. But, looks like the fortune and future of most of the OPEC members is not really that great. Iran is facing sanctions over its nuclear program; Libya and Iraq are in near ruins; the GCC rulers are increasingly experiencing opposition to their rule – fueled by events in the neighboring regions; radicalization; terrorism; economic pressures are all taking a toll.

OPEC oil price spiked significantly in 1973, 1978 - 80. Then came a relatively stable price regime until 2001 followed by a gradual and then a phenomenal climb in prices in 2007- 2008 with a dramatic fall in 2009 and extreme volatility from 2010 - 14. The oil crisis of the 70’s changed how the world designed cars and other mechanical fuel guzzlers. The decade of 80s and 90s became the age of plastics and polymers. The first decade of 2000 saw energy security becoming a global concern as oil was being guzzled by China along with Asian and LatAM upstarts in fueling their economic growth. From 2010 the demand for oil has been dropping. Beyond US$ 60 – 70 a barrel; fracking shale oil became economical – something that the west has in plenty. At these rates the expensive to produce but less desirable fuel from non-OPEC nations too became an alternate to consider. Of course, shifting to newer renewable form of energy became an agenda for every nation rich in water resources and sunlight. And, identification of massive gas reserves in the Bay of Bengal and some regions of Africa have lessened the energy security anxiety to reduce stockpiling of oil reserves. In short the world has a lesser need for OPEC oil than it did a few decades ago.

As on today - 27th Nov 2014; the OPEC members meet again to discuss oil production cuts based on softening of the oil prices to around US$ 80 a barrel with pundits predicting a further US$ 10 cut should OPEC not agree on cuts. 

The OPEC of today is very different from the one of 1960. Most of the OPEC members as I stated earlier have severe economic and political situations to contend with along with the reality that non OPEC members would gleefully open the production tap to fill the void. Add to that the polarization in the ideologies of the various Arab and Muslim nations is ushering in an era of "religionomics" to the fore. The world too has gotten tired of this price bullying and to repeat myself many emerging nations are switching to alternate ways of sourcing and securing their energy security needs. 

From what I have read as words of wisdom on oil from experts; it will actually serve the interest of many OPEC members to actually allow the reduction in the price of oil as the stronger dollar compensates the real income in their own national currencies (most of them are linked to the dollar anyway); and by that hurt the production of shale oil and crude by non OPEC members as their extraction cost is much higher than that of the OPEC oil. While the GCC OPEC members would not be too impacted to care, the rest of them will actually be hurt and maybe forced to cause a split in the organization itself.

NOV 28^th 2014; well the event played out pretty much the way I thought it would. No cut back in production by OPEC causing oil futures to slip to around US$ 65 a barrel – much higher than the US$ 10 slip predicted. Could oil settle at US$ 40 a barrel? The shale oil and gas producers feel that OPEC will not be able to sustain these low prices for too long based on economic and internal member pressures, and will be forced to bring it back to levels where it’s no longer a threat to impact production of the same. Is this a prediction or a veiled threat? I hope that this time around the OPEC members go contrarian and allow cheap oil to fuel the GDPs of emerging nations and also invest the petro dollars earned back there rather than the imaginary safe havens of the developed world. 

Fri, Sep 11 2015, 05:40 GMT 

Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts

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• EURUSD flirting with 1.1300
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FXStreet (Mumbai) - The investment bank Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecasts and expressed the possibility of oil dropping to USD 20/barrel.

The bank now sees Brent crude at USD 53.7/barrel in 2015 and expects prices to drop further to USD 49.50/barrel in 2016. On similar lines, WTI crude is seen falling to USD 48.1/barrel in 2015 and USD 45/barrel in 2016.

The global crude oil surplus is cited as a primary reason for a further drop in prices.

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Modi-nomics

Globally oil price is falling but US Dollar is rising;
net cost of oil import for India still the same.
The Indian Rupee is falling but gold imports are rising; 
keeping India's balance of payments in shame. 
If inflation is falling then why cost of essentials rising; 
somewhere there is a scam to tame. 
Production - exports falling but still stock markets are rising; 
higher and higher the indices aim.
Interest rates ain't falling but debt takers are rising;
its hard to understand this banking game.
Real estate ain't falling but unsold inventory is rising; 
on debt this industry stands lame. 
FDI ain't falling but infra investments not yet rising
despite the commitments from leaders that came. 
Are good days coming to see India shining; 
or will Modi-nomics equal bubble-nomics in name? 

The callous end of INS Vikrant

INS Vikrant -

A historical summation of  its life of 71 years:



Keel Laid October 1943 in the UK - christened as HMS Hercules - Majestic Class Light Fleet Carrier.

Displacement - 20,000 tonnes. Built to fight in WWII; but was only 3/4th completed at the end of the war - so was never completed by nor served in the Royal Navy. Sold to India in 1957. Completed and commissioned as http://www.mumbaimirror.com/mumbai/cover-story/Ex-Navy-men-to-bring-Vikrant-back-to-life/articleshow/46857426.cmsINS VIKRANT in 1961. Served in the Indian Navy until 1997 (36 years) and was primarily responsible for India's naval victory with Pakistan in 1971. Received upgrades (1979 to 1982) to accommodate newer generation VTOL aircraft like the Sea Harriers. Converted to a naval maritime museum until 2004 and sent to the scrap heap sometime thereafter on account of no caretaker and no funds. Declared dead in November 2014 at a ship graveyard called "Darukhanna" where its carcass is now being cut for its high grade steel.  An unceremonious end to a celebrated metallic warrior of the Indian naval forces.


I think I was about twelve when I boarded this elegant and majestic warship. By today's standards, its about half the size of any aircraft carrier; but, back then - it was one of the largest ships in the Asian region. I was awestruck by what I saw, and within a few days of my visit was inspired to join the Sea Cadet Corps. wanting to become a naval pilot someday. I loved planes a tad more than ships and a career as a naval pilot was just perfect to satisfy my thirst for being a part of both the air and sea, It's a different story that life had written for me. I still claim to be a man in uniform; but I sport business attire and not battle fatigues; fly in commercial aircrafts instead of a fighter jet; and commandeer a fleet of hotels and not ships. But back to INS Vikrant; could we all have done something to protect this inspiration of mine from going the way it did?

The Navy will carry on the Vikrant legacy like any other navy in the world has - that is - by christening a successor ship with the same name.  India's own indigenous aircraft carrier has been named INS Vikrant and that will ensure that the name is not forgotten. But the history bound to the ship is lost. There have been calls by a political party in Maharashtra to construct a monument in the sea costing INR 2 billion or more honouring Chattrapati Shivaji (the first Maratha king). If a railway station, international airport and many landmark buildings have b
een named after him; surely the Maharashtra government could have purchased this ship at the value the scrap dealer paid (INR 630 million) and turned it into a fitting memorial that would have served both purposes. In fact the ship that was built to withstand the severity of the sea would not have needed environmental clearances either.

It is sad that politicians can commit billions of rupees to idolize their own ideologies and historical statements - on schemes that do nothing more than siphon off funds from actual public use to waste. This ship deserved a better fate being India's first carrier. In some other nations; the ship's steel would have been used to create miniature replicas of the vessel to be sold to those interested in getting their hands on a piece of this history. It certainly would have got the exchequer more than it received from the scrap dealer. This attitude also reflects how we treat our ex servicemen and why there are lesser and lesser recruits who voluntarily join the armed forces. If scams depriving pensions and assistance to the survivors of war heroes is taken into consideration - this callous end of INS Vikrant is a small matter in comparison.

Going back into my personal history of when I was a kid and fascinated by the armed forces, I  heard a song played by the naval band and still remember the lyrics  "Aisa desh kabhi na dekh - kabhi na suna hai.." (Never seen or heard of a Country like this - refering patriotically to India). I think, the words of this song lend a very different meaning to me today. Yes, I have never seen or heard of a nation that is so unpatriotic to its own protectors, may it be the men or women in uniform or the machines that serve them; specially when I take into account that this is the same Country that has a day reserved to worship work tools and weapons as gifts from God. I am sorry my inspiration that this is all that I could do to honor your memory and that of your valiant crew. "Jai Hind".

9th April 2015 : ’EX-NAVY MEN TO BRING VIKRANT ‘BACK TO LIFE


27th Dec 2015:

1971 WAR HERO INS VIKRANT IS COMING TO A ROAD NEAR YOU

27th Jan 2016 Finally this is what happened: