What Goal will our Budget Score?

There are two things that are creating a buzz in the Nation called India as I write this blog - Mr. Modi's maiden budget and the world cup match between Brazil and Germany. India is not known as a soccer playing nation; but the excitement it has created is on par with that of cricket. Kids who have no clue about the players in the Indian national football team can recite the names of the key players in the top 8 international teams like they play in some Indian Football League. I hope this attachment translates into a great Indian football side that can win international accolades. Hopefully sports will get a lot of attention in the budget and may our presence in this sector show a hockey stick growth curve just like the stock market right now. Like there are no real fundamentals to explain why there is so much love for a game of soccer in India; so also there is nothing that comes to my mind on why the markets are so ecstatic.

Every strata and segment of of the population is asking what is the goal of this budget?

Just like spectators and commentators advising the players on the field; everyone (including me) seems to be telling the Government what we want and what it should do to give us the WIN-WIN results.  But like the silly players who think they know what's best and continue to play the game the way they want to; so will the Government come out with policies disregarding all the sage advice we the people have collectively offered.

While the results of the World Cup do not really impact India; the budget certainly does. I have said before that the money India needs to attract should be long; one that goes into nurturing growth, and not the short fickle money that drives up the market. Unfortunately the latter too has its uses in creating an environment of confidence for long money to follow and the long calls made by the rulers will decide if it actually will attract such capital. If the rail budget is anything to go by then the signals are very mixed. The idea of a bullet train from Mumbai to Ahmedabad (if it happens call it the "Modi Express") did not put the market up at hyper speed; but brought it down. On the other hand the message must have gone at lightening speed to Chinese and Japanese companies on the opportunity of participating in a US$10 billion infrastructure contract.

My prediction; is that the budget will be unimaginative at best in terms of delivering anything other than policies that the government will adopt in curbing expenditure and conveying a sense of a stable and non coercive tax regime. If by that, the Modi brigade can attract Global eyeballs then the Great India Story may just become interesting again. Until then the bigger question is Brazil or Germany?