Elephant dance and dead bodies.

Last evening I was invited by my bankers to hear three prominent persons (one American and two Indians) from the financial world on the state of the global and Indian economy to educate me on how to invest in times to come.

If I understood any of it correctly then we are all clones of Nero in a burning Rome. Very scary indeed. He is not the first person from the West saying that there is an economic cancer that is corroding the insides of the so called stable developed nations in the West. And yet; the growth centred money making emerging markets are perceived as "high Risk" by them. Worse, the emerging markets actually buy that story and invest in those perceived "safe havens" that are hiding not dirt but dead bodies under a carpet of pristine white. It's like putting money into a pool of no return when the actual strategy would be to invest and strengthen the economies of the emerging markets. I guess The BRICS bank is a first step in that direction and maybe creating a common trading (but not national) currency would be a long but necessary second step to wean away from the deadly dollar and erratic euro. The Unfortunate part is that politically and ideologically the BRICS are totally divided on the face of it, even though each of them has a common goal economically.

Well, I guess 5 is less than 30. Yes, I mean the number that exemplifies the Divided States of India. After 67 years of Independence we are still Maharashtrians, Gujaratis, Tamilians, Punjabis, and so on; but not Indians. I will not dive into this zone for now but Indians need to be Indians first to allow India to find itself as a rightful leader on the world stage.

Back to the subject; the talk of the elephant (India) waking up and breaking into a graceful dance of economic revival was taken up by the other two speakers. One; a US$ 30 billion fund manager and known to be an eternal optimist; the other not too far behind in money he manages but a confirmed conservative. Being equity gurus, the bias was very clear and I discounted much of it as marketing rather than market talk. But, what I could make out of what they both said is that India certainly needs to spend money on infrastructure if it wants to create more jobs and become a manufacturing base. It has a large population but much of it is unskilled and inefficient. It's also a land of low change high impact which means that a small economic swing positive or negative impacts overall growth drastically in monetary terms. And so, the elephant can dance; but it has to be watchful of all the dead bodies all around as they can rise up like ghouls and scare the shit of the elephant; in which case the dance will trample a whole lot more of what has been created.

So, what do simple folks like us do. Nothing much - just enjoy the party I suppose and pray that the ride on the elephant is not too jerky to throw up.