Mr. Modi and his merry men completed 50 days in power on 17th July crossing the 49 day threshold mark of the Delhi government set by AAP. Was it coincidence that the Delhi budget was presented on the same day? I thought that the Budget speech was written for the FM by none other than Mr. Kejriwal. It sounded like the AAP manifesto rebooted.
Now, if there is anything that Mr. Kejriwal should be whining about; then it should be the hijacking of AAP's commitment to the people of Delhi; and not about the assumed horse trading it is possibly engaging in to gain majority in the Delhi State Assembly. Hey! the BJP is plain and simple capitalizing on the work left incomplete by AAP when it (AAP) let go of the one and only capital chance it had of ruling India's Capital state.
Mr. K; have you not heard that everything is fair in love and politics? I hope and pray that the Congress guys in the Delhi assembly defect to the BJP for their own selfish motives and meet the supposed larger selfish motives of the BJP to form the government, and thereby save the State the cost of another election. Well Milton is not around to write "Paradise Lost II" for you. So looking back, if only you had bidded your time and not given up when you did; post elections, the Congress members in the current situation may have extended unconditional support to your Government. If only you had measured your reach to cover the 3 or 4 big Metros in India in the National elections; God knows you may have made a much larger impact than just 2 or 3 seats in Parliament. Guess that cannot change now.
Anyway, why are you bothered that BJP is keen on forming the Delhi Government? You were reluctant to form the Government in Delhi anyway and did so only because of the so called mandate you received from the people. I think AAP can play a very constructive and more important role now in the opposition making sure that the Government performs and the State actually improves its governance and infrastructure. Corruption is far from over. It is a fabulous opportunity to be in secondary power than being in a reduced minority - which will be the case should a new election take place. Rebuild the Party from scratch. Weed out the seat hungry opportunists and induct new blood keen on putting the Nation's interest before their own. Make it a Party that speaks with one voice and not a 100 opposing and at times demonic voices. Above all be constructive in your approach. BJP forming the Delhi Government without an election may just be the best thing for AAP. Please don't let AAP be written off as Horse CrAAP.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
All Well?
The budget has been read out
not everyone is pleased,
but on the whole a knockout
on reading the fine print released.
Chindia love story gets a fresh start
a new era both nations will chart.
Russia, Brazil and SA join the act
to make a BRICS bank a real fact.
The monsoon has finally kicked in
farmers letting out a sigh!.
But, like the sensex rising
tomatoes are on a high.
Some pain this nation will bear
it's still in a state of repair.
In this age of global strife
lots of uncertainty in our life.
It's time for hard work with some fun
not for resentment and hate.
Behind the grey cloud hides the sun
for a good day it's never too late.
Germany, the world cup it has won
with a team that played like one.
Hope in Indians it rings a bell
Then all will certainly be well.
not everyone is pleased,
but on the whole a knockout
on reading the fine print released.
Chindia love story gets a fresh start
a new era both nations will chart.
Russia, Brazil and SA join the act
to make a BRICS bank a real fact.
The monsoon has finally kicked in
farmers letting out a sigh!.
But, like the sensex rising
tomatoes are on a high.
Some pain this nation will bear
it's still in a state of repair.
In this age of global strife
lots of uncertainty in our life.
It's time for hard work with some fun
not for resentment and hate.
Behind the grey cloud hides the sun
for a good day it's never too late.
Germany, the world cup it has won
with a team that played like one.
Hope in Indians it rings a bell
Then all will certainly be well.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Hey BUD! did you GET it? HOPE - The Art of Giving without Giving.
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| Image Credit: http://budget2014.co.in/ |
I was right to the point that it will be a boring one that will leave everyone wondering why was it presented in the first place. The market echoed its mood by swinging up and down like possessed by some demon. Partly exorcised by experts after the budget speech there was realization that one would have to read the fine lines before reading debt as death and switch from spitting to smoking in an attempt to pollute the environment and commit suicide at the same time.
This morning (11th July), my mail(e)box was bombarded with the slice and dice of the budget from as many sources as I can count on my fingers and toes. Verdict great for India, good for industry, fair for the middle and lower class and bad for those in between them and the HNWI and above classes. Now WTF does that mean?
Clearly it was a Pro India budget and the signal was sent to the world that India is open to accepting money for growth and infrastructure from overseas. Naturally, there isn't enough within the Country for the super billion dollar projects. Announcing token allocations to several social projects the message was very clear - big money for bigger project just ain't there; and the government is unwilling to borrow for them either. The latter is a very good sign as it means seriousness in curtailing deficit. Further if large projects were developed under PPP model (Public Private Partnership) then better the chances of the projects seeing light of day in the expected time and costs. There was criticism on a substantial allocation for building a statue of "Sardar Patel" in Gujarat. Yes money could always go to a more productive use; but Patel is the unsung hero of United India. If Bapu Gandhi is the father of India then Patel is its soul and honoring his memory is in a way Modi saluting his and India's mentor.
To make money flows in, the government has made the right noise that while it promises not to mess around with investors' happiness, it will keep that right reserved just in case. The latter made sure that even the insignificant opposition along with the significant bureaucracy does not have any reason to scream and shout or the government get itself labeled as a "sellout" to the now forgotten "foreign hand". With virtually every State getting a share of social projects irrespective which political party ruled it; Modi's team were out to send a message to the people of India that matter and it does not matter which State they hail from or which party governs them.
Industry by and large is quite happy particularly auto, real estate, financial and banking sectors even happier. Implementation of a uniform Goods and Services Tax (GST), permitting REITS, cuts in excise, ease of norms to raise money in India and overseas and what not will in time allow industry to prosper and operate in an environment of greater transparency and lesser harassment. Growth of the small and medium sector is as or more important in India for creation of jobs. There were a few unhappy industries but in the scheme of things they had bad days coming. The "Jawan" (Soldier) and "Kissan" (Farmer) got their "Jai"s (Salute) too from the Finance Minister and his Boss with a slew of initiatives for them. Notably on the fronts of pensions for the soldiers and insulation against bad harvests for farmers.
The lower and middle class constituting the vast majority were compensated for the rising prices (driven by removal of subsidies largely) by modest tax cuts linked with either saving up for the rainy day or investing in growth. It wasn't much but then every penny saved at that income level means a lot as opposed to the ones that live in the clouds in India. Officially there are about 500,000 High and Ultra High Net Worth families (My Guess 5,000,000 at least) of which only 10% really end up paying taxes in excess of Rs. 1 million. The Budget has just left this lot alone and rightly so for logical reasons.
It was labeled as the Budget of Hope and that's exactly what it delivered. No promises but a possibility that if all goes as per plan then the good days promised will hopefully come. In a way it gave a lot without giving anything and I think that's exactly what one can hope for now if the Nation wants to repair itself and prepare itself for the next decade. Now Bud! do you Get it?
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
What Goal will our Budget Score?
There are two things that are creating a buzz in the Nation called India as I write this blog - Mr. Modi's maiden budget and the world cup match between Brazil and Germany. India is not known as a soccer playing nation; but the excitement it has created is on par with that of cricket. Kids who have no clue about the players in the Indian national football team can recite the names of the key players in the top 8 international teams like they play in some Indian Football League. I hope this attachment translates into a great Indian football side that can win international accolades. Hopefully sports will get a lot of attention in the budget and may our presence in this sector show a hockey stick growth curve just like the stock market right now. Like there are no real fundamentals to explain why there is so much love for a game of soccer in India; so also there is nothing that comes to my mind on why the markets are so ecstatic.
Every strata and segment of of the population is asking what is the goal of this budget?
Just like spectators and commentators advising the players on the field; everyone (including me) seems to be telling the Government what we want and what it should do to give us the WIN-WIN results. But like the silly players who think they know what's best and continue to play the game the way they want to; so will the Government come out with policies disregarding all the sage advice we the people have collectively offered.
While the results of the World Cup do not really impact India; the budget certainly does. I have said before that the money India needs to attract should be long; one that goes into nurturing growth, and not the short fickle money that drives up the market. Unfortunately the latter too has its uses in creating an environment of confidence for long money to follow and the long calls made by the rulers will decide if it actually will attract such capital. If the rail budget is anything to go by then the signals are very mixed. The idea of a bullet train from Mumbai to Ahmedabad (if it happens call it the "Modi Express") did not put the market up at hyper speed; but brought it down. On the other hand the message must have gone at lightening speed to Chinese and Japanese companies on the opportunity of participating in a US$10 billion infrastructure contract.
My prediction; is that the budget will be unimaginative at best in terms of delivering anything other than policies that the government will adopt in curbing expenditure and conveying a sense of a stable and non coercive tax regime. If by that, the Modi brigade can attract Global eyeballs then the Great India Story may just become interesting again. Until then the bigger question is Brazil or Germany?
Every strata and segment of of the population is asking what is the goal of this budget?
Just like spectators and commentators advising the players on the field; everyone (including me) seems to be telling the Government what we want and what it should do to give us the WIN-WIN results. But like the silly players who think they know what's best and continue to play the game the way they want to; so will the Government come out with policies disregarding all the sage advice we the people have collectively offered.
While the results of the World Cup do not really impact India; the budget certainly does. I have said before that the money India needs to attract should be long; one that goes into nurturing growth, and not the short fickle money that drives up the market. Unfortunately the latter too has its uses in creating an environment of confidence for long money to follow and the long calls made by the rulers will decide if it actually will attract such capital. If the rail budget is anything to go by then the signals are very mixed. The idea of a bullet train from Mumbai to Ahmedabad (if it happens call it the "Modi Express") did not put the market up at hyper speed; but brought it down. On the other hand the message must have gone at lightening speed to Chinese and Japanese companies on the opportunity of participating in a US$10 billion infrastructure contract.
My prediction; is that the budget will be unimaginative at best in terms of delivering anything other than policies that the government will adopt in curbing expenditure and conveying a sense of a stable and non coercive tax regime. If by that, the Modi brigade can attract Global eyeballs then the Great India Story may just become interesting again. Until then the bigger question is Brazil or Germany?
Thursday, July 3, 2014
Oh My God! Is this necessary?
In the news today:
Sai vs Shankaracharya: Conflict may turn ugly"NEW DELHI: An unusual confrontation is building up ever since Dwarka Shankaracharya, Swami Swaroopanand Saraswati, ran down the followers of Shirdi Sai Baba, saying they ought not to worship the 19th century mystic who was no god, and remove his photographs and idols from temples where he gets the pride of place with Hindu deities." TOI.
Sai Baba just a "Muslim fakir", can't be worshipped: Shankaracharya
PTI Haridwar, June 30, 2014 | UPDATED 04:38 IST
Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/sai-baba-just-a-muslim-fakir-cant-be-worshipped-shankaracharya/1/369162.html
I think God has created more wars than all the Devils combined. Come to think of it; I feel all the caretakers of religion behave more like Devils themselves rather than the God they preach about. I prefer to be labeled as an atheist as I am unwilling to align with the so called God and nowadays the Devil worshipers.
This is a personal conclusion that I have reached from reading about quite a few spiritual leaders - neither of the gurus Gautama,Mahavir, Nanak, Christ or for that matter even Sai ever wanted either religions nor places of worship be built on their name. They preached a path for humans to attain enlightenment - freeing it from their own self created misery. All preached there is one God and unfortunately the interpretation of their teachings were churned into a religion. None of them said they were Gods and yet they were made one. The result seems to have been contrary to what they wanted and no one seems to have learnt anything from them. When Christ said " I am Son of God" it surely meant each one of us are children of God and yet we try to differentiate between the superiority of one religion over the other when there is none. Why? simple answer control, wealth and power.
All of us born have one destination - death. No "God" has helped any of his followers to escape it nor escape the pleasure and pains of daily life. It is human faith in the concept of God to deliver that delivers and that is what we label as "miracles" in daily lives. It's good to have faith - any faith is better than none.
I do agree with the Shankaracharya that Sai Baba's pictures or idols must not share space with those of Hindu deities. If at all Baba needs to be enshrined or worshiped as God then it must be in a place of worship solely of his own; for he has achieved what none of Hindu Idol God have achieved singularly or collectively - that is bring people of all faiths, class, creed, or any distinction to come and bow their head before him in ardent respect. Yes a fakir he was; and yet everyone goes to beg from him. He had no wealth when he was alive nor cared for it; yet today there are more temples, trusts, corporations, and means of accumulating wealth named after him. If he was alive today and just collected franchise royalty for his name used - he would probably end up as the richest man in the world. That would make him a king of Kings.
So what if Baba ate meat or smoked tobacco; there are many more important things dogging Hindus right now including the price of vegetables and this controversy started by the seer is quite unnecessary. It is not for him to "protect" the Hindu dharma or religion - let the Gods do their job in protecting themselves. Hinduism has done well for itself in India despite being ruled by Muslims and Christians. In Hinduism even a rat, snake, stone, water, and other living and nonliving things are worshiped in a temple and to say that a picture or an idol of an evolved soul in a temple is sacrilege is quite laughable actually.
Buddhist, Jains, Sikhs and many more don't believe they are part of the Hindu sect anymore and think of themselves as part of a separate religion. What if the followers of Sai form a religion after him - there would not be many Hindus or for that matter other faiths left then. Think about it.
Oh My God! I am reminded of the lyrics of "Imagine" by John Lennon...
Buddhist, Jains, Sikhs and many more don't believe they are part of the Hindu sect anymore and think of themselves as part of a separate religion. What if the followers of Sai form a religion after him - there would not be many Hindus or for that matter other faiths left then. Think about it.
Oh My God! I am reminded of the lyrics of "Imagine" by John Lennon...
Imagine there's no heaven
It's easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us only sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today...
Imagine there's no countries
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace...
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will be as one
Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world...
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will live as one
It's easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us only sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today...
Imagine there's no countries
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace...
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will be as one
Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world...
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will live as one
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Modi the Magician or Modi the Doctor?
The question being asked - did Mr. Modi con the nation with his tag line "Acche Din Annewale hai" (Good days are coming)? The answer to those raising such a question - you have been had. Honestly; what were those people thinking? Did they believe that the malaise of 15 years will get cured in 15 days? Were they voting for a Prime Minister or a Perfect Magician?
I for one was glad that Mr. Modi took some bold and unpopular steps - which I thought were a step in the right direction. My happiness was quashed in no time when the rise in rail fares was retracted to suit the needs of the BJP and alliance partner in Maharashtra keeping the State elections in mind. Why? A political victory takes priority over the repair of the Nation I guess. I am sure there were other ways to placate the population of the State and particularly Mumbai City. Anyway it's too early to do a critique of a Government just about a month old. Good thing is that it is hearing the people's voice - good or bad. Maybe administering a full dose of bitter pills at one go is not such a great idea. But, treating the disease is going to be painful and a slow solution will prolong if not compound the ill effect.
Dr. Modi's prescription for bringing India back to health will be announced on 10th of July. My own guess was that his team wanted to raise the tax free slab from Rs 200,000 to Rs 500,000 as a trade off for the increase in prices that would come about from withdrawal of subsidies; and also a measure of bringing in better tax compliance. I don't know if this will happen now. The DTC draft that was floated in 2008 was revolutionary and had it been implemented the Nation would have been on a different trajectory. But it was so watered down that it made little difference between the old and new. The tax structure is totally out of sync with reality. On one hand there are announcements of billion dollar deals and on the other taxation starts at a measly US$ 5000 per annum? In a nation where barely 3% ( 36 million) pay any amount of personal income tax and only about 43,000 pay tax over Rs 1 million ( US$ 15,000) it is hard to reconcile the fact that India has over 200,000 UHNW families and close to 1 million homes with over US$ 1 million in wealth. The honest taxpayer happens to be the non governmental working class. Reason is obvious. Most government employees do not declare their other income and the super rich have accountants who find the available loopholes to escape larger tax.
Why then have Income Tax at all? Why not dismantle the mechanism that creates black money to begin with and simply move to a simple form of indirect consumption tax (already there) with just capital gains and wealth tax? Well everyone in this nation consumes and everyone has assets. It was reported that in this year's elections; several candidates reported assets over US$ 1 million (with a couple over a billion). If the yardstick of million dollar plus homes; luxury cars - boats - planes is applied; India would certainly see a reported ten fold jump in the number of UNHW and HNW individuals and families. If there is no income tax then there is no need to give subsidies either. Prices will go up and so will the GST (Goods and Services Tax). Better governance means a trimer government. Smart people will always find a job or become entrepreneurs.
It is said easier to give advice and easier said than done. There are clever people in the bureaucracy and cleverer people in politics. I have a simple mind and it says to remove corruption just remove the reason for it. Will it happen? - I don't know. Will we see happy days?That depends. Will Mr. Modi be the Magician or Doctor for India? he can be both or end up as the biggest Devil. Reason? The Nation has trusted him to deliver and if he fails - India will be worse than hell.
I for one was glad that Mr. Modi took some bold and unpopular steps - which I thought were a step in the right direction. My happiness was quashed in no time when the rise in rail fares was retracted to suit the needs of the BJP and alliance partner in Maharashtra keeping the State elections in mind. Why? A political victory takes priority over the repair of the Nation I guess. I am sure there were other ways to placate the population of the State and particularly Mumbai City. Anyway it's too early to do a critique of a Government just about a month old. Good thing is that it is hearing the people's voice - good or bad. Maybe administering a full dose of bitter pills at one go is not such a great idea. But, treating the disease is going to be painful and a slow solution will prolong if not compound the ill effect.
Dr. Modi's prescription for bringing India back to health will be announced on 10th of July. My own guess was that his team wanted to raise the tax free slab from Rs 200,000 to Rs 500,000 as a trade off for the increase in prices that would come about from withdrawal of subsidies; and also a measure of bringing in better tax compliance. I don't know if this will happen now. The DTC draft that was floated in 2008 was revolutionary and had it been implemented the Nation would have been on a different trajectory. But it was so watered down that it made little difference between the old and new. The tax structure is totally out of sync with reality. On one hand there are announcements of billion dollar deals and on the other taxation starts at a measly US$ 5000 per annum? In a nation where barely 3% ( 36 million) pay any amount of personal income tax and only about 43,000 pay tax over Rs 1 million ( US$ 15,000) it is hard to reconcile the fact that India has over 200,000 UHNW families and close to 1 million homes with over US$ 1 million in wealth. The honest taxpayer happens to be the non governmental working class. Reason is obvious. Most government employees do not declare their other income and the super rich have accountants who find the available loopholes to escape larger tax.
Why then have Income Tax at all? Why not dismantle the mechanism that creates black money to begin with and simply move to a simple form of indirect consumption tax (already there) with just capital gains and wealth tax? Well everyone in this nation consumes and everyone has assets. It was reported that in this year's elections; several candidates reported assets over US$ 1 million (with a couple over a billion). If the yardstick of million dollar plus homes; luxury cars - boats - planes is applied; India would certainly see a reported ten fold jump in the number of UNHW and HNW individuals and families. If there is no income tax then there is no need to give subsidies either. Prices will go up and so will the GST (Goods and Services Tax). Better governance means a trimer government. Smart people will always find a job or become entrepreneurs.
It is said easier to give advice and easier said than done. There are clever people in the bureaucracy and cleverer people in politics. I have a simple mind and it says to remove corruption just remove the reason for it. Will it happen? - I don't know. Will we see happy days?That depends. Will Mr. Modi be the Magician or Doctor for India? he can be both or end up as the biggest Devil. Reason? The Nation has trusted him to deliver and if he fails - India will be worse than hell.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Two plus two equals whatever when it comes to wealth in India
The Indian nation is feeling good. Real good. The "Modi Effect" seems to be better than the "Axe Effect". If one has money who needs a deo to attract the "honey"; and everyone seems to have suddenly become richer with the markets jumping up 25% in under a month.
A table on Global Wealth caught my eye. It says India with 175,000 US$ millionaire households and 248,000 households with wealth of over US$ 100 million - the super rich or Ultra High Net Worth (UHNW) households is ranked 15th and 13th on the global scale.
I don't have an issue with the second statistic but I think the former has missed a one or two in front of the 175,000 figure. Going by what I have observed and/or heard and/or read - everyone in India behaves like a dollar millionaire. Don't believe me - just walk into an exclusive brand showroom or of a luxury car brand. Simpler, just take a flight or a stay in a hotel. I think India has over a million or two households with an investable net worth exceeding US$ one million. If one includes some rich non tax paying farmers (agro income exempt from personal income tax); the figure would jump to nearly ten million millionaires I assume. In a Country of 1.2 billion + people; the figure would still remain under 1% of the total population.
But then, why are there only 43,000 tax pay payers paying a tax of over Rs. 1 million (US$ 15,000) per annum? It just does not add up.
A table on Global Wealth caught my eye. It says India with 175,000 US$ millionaire households and 248,000 households with wealth of over US$ 100 million - the super rich or Ultra High Net Worth (UHNW) households is ranked 15th and 13th on the global scale.
I don't have an issue with the second statistic but I think the former has missed a one or two in front of the 175,000 figure. Going by what I have observed and/or heard and/or read - everyone in India behaves like a dollar millionaire. Don't believe me - just walk into an exclusive brand showroom or of a luxury car brand. Simpler, just take a flight or a stay in a hotel. I think India has over a million or two households with an investable net worth exceeding US$ one million. If one includes some rich non tax paying farmers (agro income exempt from personal income tax); the figure would jump to nearly ten million millionaires I assume. In a Country of 1.2 billion + people; the figure would still remain under 1% of the total population.
But then, why are there only 43,000 tax pay payers paying a tax of over Rs. 1 million (US$ 15,000) per annum? It just does not add up.
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