Elephant dance and dead bodies.

Last evening I was invited by my bankers to hear three prominent persons (one American and two Indians) from the financial world on the state of the global and Indian economy to educate me on how to invest in times to come.

If I understood any of it correctly then we are all clones of Nero in a burning Rome. Very scary indeed. He is not the first person from the West saying that there is an economic cancer that is corroding the insides of the so called stable developed nations in the West. And yet; the growth centred money making emerging markets are perceived as "high Risk" by them. Worse, the emerging markets actually buy that story and invest in those perceived "safe havens" that are hiding not dirt but dead bodies under a carpet of pristine white. It's like putting money into a pool of no return when the actual strategy would be to invest and strengthen the economies of the emerging markets. I guess The BRICS bank is a first step in that direction and maybe creating a common trading (but not national) currency would be a long but necessary second step to wean away from the deadly dollar and erratic euro. The Unfortunate part is that politically and ideologically the BRICS are totally divided on the face of it, even though each of them has a common goal economically.

Well, I guess 5 is less than 30. Yes, I mean the number that exemplifies the Divided States of India. After 67 years of Independence we are still Maharashtrians, Gujaratis, Tamilians, Punjabis, and so on; but not Indians. I will not dive into this zone for now but Indians need to be Indians first to allow India to find itself as a rightful leader on the world stage.

Back to the subject; the talk of the elephant (India) waking up and breaking into a graceful dance of economic revival was taken up by the other two speakers. One; a US$ 30 billion fund manager and known to be an eternal optimist; the other not too far behind in money he manages but a confirmed conservative. Being equity gurus, the bias was very clear and I discounted much of it as marketing rather than market talk. But, what I could make out of what they both said is that India certainly needs to spend money on infrastructure if it wants to create more jobs and become a manufacturing base. It has a large population but much of it is unskilled and inefficient. It's also a land of low change high impact which means that a small economic swing positive or negative impacts overall growth drastically in monetary terms. And so, the elephant can dance; but it has to be watchful of all the dead bodies all around as they can rise up like ghouls and scare the shit of the elephant; in which case the dance will trample a whole lot more of what has been created.

So, what do simple folks like us do. Nothing much - just enjoy the party I suppose and pray that the ride on the elephant is not too jerky to throw up.

Holiday

Wanting to do something silly and adventurous this year; I signed up to attend my Kuwaiti School reunion. Now why is that silly and adventurous? To begin with, it was being held on a lesser known and small island in Greece; and the only thread connecting me to the other participants was that we all went to the same school. I recognized a few names as batchmates - but really - knew none of them as friends. I was uncomfortable with the fact that I, an Indian would stick out as a sore thumb between a collection of Arabs and Europeans who had a longer connection to the Mid East than I. Language, culture, and many other excuses made me think that I had done a very stupid thing by paying up the non refundable deposit.

It turns out that the eight days spent with them will probably join the list of the best days of my life. By the second day none of the fears I had stood ground and Greece made the entire experience heavenly. When I left Greece, my heart was heavy - as if parting with my extended family. We are all the same under our skin - humans. I wonder what fears or prejudices prevented me to make an effort to know these people while I was at school? It does not matter now - it was like going back in time and setting the past right. In doing so I learnt a lot of things about myself and I am feeling so good about it.

At the cost of sounding like the Greece Tourism Board; I must have had the best Kebabs in Athens; eaten some of the freshest fruits, vegetables and seafood; seen some spectacular sites both historical and natural; and met with some of the friendliest locals on earth. Greece, is probably 25% cheaper than the rest of Europe and I did not mind spending my hard earned converted Rupees on shopping either. It's on my must visit again list for sure. I am quite sure that Greece was the home for the Gods on earth.

It was great to switch off from the world. Despite great WIFI (free) connectivity almost everywhere (hotels, restaurants, cafes, shops) - I decided to keep away from absorbing any form of news - electronic or print. The newspapers were all Greek to me anyway. I could have been Nero fiddling while the world was burning; but that is what a holiday is supposed to be - right? Time to let go of everything so that the focus returns on the self? Is it a selfish thought? Honestly - I don't know nor do I care. We owe ourselves some time to reconnect to all that really matters to us. There is no guilt in enjoying life.

Now... bye.... got to plan my next holiday.

5 paise is more important than Rs 5 billion

I applaud the principle under the which the Delhi Transport Corporation dismissed the services of a bus conductor back in 1973. Supposedly shortchanging DTC by an amount of 5paise; not because he did it once but was a serial offender. The Court ordered the Conductor to pay back Rs. 1.42 to DTC as original shortchanged amount +  accumulated interest for 41 years. Yes that's the time it has taken to reach a conclusion. DTC's annual loss is Rs 10 billion; just to put the award amount in perspective.

I can draw 2 morals from the story. First, it does not matter how long it takes; but justice will be served and delivered. Second, if you are going to scam in India; better make sure its in billions cause the time it will take for the law to deliver justice may well be past the time you may have been granted by your creator on mother Earth.

Mad Cows, Mobiles, Video Games, Solar Flares and Supernature.

The thought of reading the newspaper each morning is getting more and more unappealing by the day. I think that the people on the 100 day happiness regime would have a happy day if they just stopped reading the unhappy headlines. There is really no news that would make one's morning a real "Good Morning".

I tried to think of the possible causes that is driving this insane behaviour from mankind. Could it be the food we are eating? Industrial poultry and cattle; if I can use that term, is being fed sawdust, poop (faeces), steroids; and other such wonderful things. Nature's intended vegetarians have been force fed non-veg fodder which at times includes remains of their own species. Is that why our brains have become like mush; full of shit; immune and insensitive to the point of sucking blood (figuratively) of our own species?  Well the vegetarians amongst us must feel safe; but with genetically modified food grown on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, insanity must be creeping in there as well. I am ready to go on a diet; but which one? Even water is not natural anymore. Food for thought; will anyone listen?

Listening; do we actually listen? We talk, and talk a lot. We want everyone to hear our words - be it vocal or written. To achieve this we have this wonderful machine called the mobile phone that not only conveys our voice but words too - never mind the grammar. I learnt that the best way to punish someone today is to take away that person's phone; trust me, that person will beg for forgiveness in under a minute. Is all this yottahertz of radio waves in our atmosphere overriding or short circuiting our own brainwaves to cause this irrational behaviour? Come to think of it, these lyrics come to my mind:

"Too much information running through my brain

Too much information driving me insane" 

Yes, these were sung by a band called the Police. 

Police reminds me of this game called "Grand Theft Auto" or GTA for short; the highest grossing game in the world. And what does one do in this game - steal, kill, shoot; basically be bad and be called the hero. There is a clear shift in morality where the hero is not necessarily the good guy - be it games or movies and is this fact shifting to real life? Is it shaping out violent and destructive individuals for whom "Breaking Bad" is good? There is a visible and increasing expression of rage for n number of reasons - be it inconvenience on road to being spurned by a lover. The most insignificant of an issue otherwise can cause a flash that can put a solar flare to shame. 

Aaah! maybe there is a scientific correlation there then. Could a phenomenon like a solar flare be responsible for the events happening here on mother earth? Or then it's Mother Nature's own way of fighting back for survival by inciting the most intelligent and destructive of its resident species annihilate itself? I can easily add a few more quack theories to explain the situation. But; in short, let's just say we are happily playing and plotting our own end. 

The theories above and I may sound a bit mad like Rev. Malthus - the proverbial prophet of doom. Maybe; but; is not what happening around us daily inexplicable madness? At least I, certainly cannot explain it.  

By the way - the song "Supernature" released back in 1977 had some pretty prophetic lyrics. 

Once upon a time science opened up the door
We would feed the hungry fields till they couldn't eat no more
But the potions that we made touched the creatures down below, oh
And they grew up in the way that we'd never seen before.

They were angry with the man 'cause he changed their way of life
And they take their sweet revenge, as they trample through the night
For a hundred miles or more you can hear the people cry
But there's nothin' you can do even God is on their side

How can I explain, things are different today
Darkness all around and nobody makes a sound
Such a sad affair, no one seems to care

Supernature, better watch out
Look at you now, better watch out
Look at you now, supernature

Better watch out, there's no way to stop it now
You can't escape, it's too late
Look what you've done, there's no place that you can run
The monster's made, we must pay

Maybe nature has a plan to control the ways of man
He must start from scratch again many battles he must win
Till he earns his place on earth like the other creatures do
Will there be a happy end, now that all depends on you

Read more: Cerrone - Supernature Lyrics | MetroLyrics 

Horse crAAP

Mr. Modi and his merry men completed  50 days in power on 17th July crossing the 49 day threshold mark of the Delhi government set by AAP. Was it coincidence that the Delhi budget was presented on the same day? I thought that the Budget speech was written for the FM by none other than Mr. Kejriwal. It sounded like the AAP manifesto rebooted.

Now, if there is anything that Mr. Kejriwal should be whining about; then it should be the hijacking of AAP's commitment to the people of Delhi; and not about the assumed horse trading it is possibly engaging in to gain majority in the Delhi State Assembly. Hey! the BJP is plain and simple capitalizing on the work left incomplete by AAP when it (AAP) let go of the one and only capital chance it had of ruling India's Capital state.

Mr. K; have you not heard that everything is fair in love and politics? I hope and pray that the Congress guys in the Delhi assembly defect to the BJP for their own selfish motives and meet the supposed larger selfish motives of the BJP to form the government, and thereby save the State the cost of another election. Well Milton is not around to write "Paradise Lost II" for you. So looking back, if only you had bidded your time and not given up when you did; post elections, the Congress members in the current situation may have extended unconditional support to your Government. If only you had measured your reach to cover the 3 or 4 big Metros in India in the National elections; God knows you may have made a much larger impact than just 2 or 3 seats in Parliament. Guess that cannot change now.

Anyway, why are you bothered that BJP is keen on forming the Delhi Government? You were reluctant to form the Government in Delhi anyway and did so only because of the so called mandate you received from the people. I think AAP can play a very constructive and more important role now in the opposition making sure that the Government performs and the State actually improves its governance and infrastructure. Corruption is far from over. It is a fabulous opportunity to be in secondary power than being in a reduced minority - which will be the case should a new election take place. Rebuild the Party from scratch. Weed out the seat hungry opportunists and induct new blood keen on putting the Nation's interest before their own. Make it a Party that speaks with one voice and not a 100 opposing and at times demonic voices. Above all be constructive in your approach. BJP forming the Delhi Government without an election may just be the best thing for AAP. Please don't let AAP be written off as Horse CrAAP.

All Well?

The budget has been read out
not everyone is pleased,
but on the whole a knockout
on reading the fine print released.

Chindia love story gets a fresh start
a new era both nations will chart.
Russia, Brazil and SA join the act
to make a BRICS bank a real fact.

The monsoon has finally kicked in
farmers letting out a sigh!.
But, like the sensex rising
tomatoes are on a high.

Some pain this nation will bear
it's still in a state of repair.
In this age of global strife
lots of uncertainty in our life.

It's time for hard work with some fun
not for resentment and hate.
Behind the grey cloud hides the sun
for a good day it's never too late.

Germany, the world cup it has won
with a team that played like one.
Hope in Indians it rings a bell
Then all will certainly be well.

Hey BUD! did you GET it? HOPE - The Art of Giving without Giving.

Image Credit: http://budget2014.co.in/

Did anyone get it for that matter - I mean was the budget good or bad? Pro or anti people? Did it give or not give anything to anyone at all?

I was right to the point that it will be a boring one that will leave everyone wondering why was it presented in the first place. The market echoed its mood by swinging up and down like possessed by some demon. Partly exorcised by experts after the budget speech there was realization that one would have to read the fine lines before reading debt as death and switch from spitting to smoking in an attempt to pollute the environment and commit suicide at the same time.

This morning (11th July), my mail(e)box was bombarded with the slice and dice of the budget from as many sources as I can count on my fingers and toes. Verdict great for India, good for industry, fair for the middle and lower class and bad for those in between them and the HNWI and above classes. Now WTF does that mean?

Clearly it was a Pro India budget and the signal was sent  to the world that India is open to accepting money for growth and infrastructure from overseas. Naturally, there isn't enough within the Country for the super billion dollar projects. Announcing token allocations to several social projects the message was very clear - big money for bigger project just ain't there; and the government is unwilling to borrow for them either. The latter is a very good sign as it means seriousness in curtailing deficit. Further if large projects were developed under PPP model (Public Private Partnership) then better the chances of the projects seeing light of day in the expected time and costs. There was criticism on a substantial allocation for building a statue of "Sardar Patel" in Gujarat. Yes money could always go to a more productive use; but Patel is the unsung hero of United India. If Bapu Gandhi is the father of India then Patel is its soul and honoring his memory is in a way Modi saluting his and India's mentor.

To make money flows in, the government has made the right noise that while it promises not to mess around with investors' happiness, it will keep that right reserved just in case. The latter made sure that even the insignificant opposition along with the significant bureaucracy does not have any reason to scream and shout or the government get itself labeled as a "sellout" to the now forgotten "foreign hand". With virtually every State getting a share of social projects irrespective which political party ruled it; Modi's team were out to send a message to the people of India that matter and it does not matter which State they hail from or which party governs them.

Industry by and large is quite happy particularly auto, real estate, financial and banking sectors even happier. Implementation of a uniform Goods and Services Tax (GST), permitting REITS, cuts in excise, ease of norms to raise money in India and overseas and what not will in time allow industry to prosper and operate in an environment of greater transparency and lesser harassment. Growth of the small and medium sector is as or more important in India for creation of jobs. There were a few unhappy industries but in the scheme of things they had bad days coming. The "Jawan" (Soldier) and "Kissan" (Farmer) got their "Jai"s (Salute) too from the Finance Minister and his Boss with a slew of initiatives for them. Notably on the fronts of pensions for the soldiers and insulation against bad harvests for farmers.

The lower and middle class constituting the vast majority were compensated for the rising prices (driven by removal of subsidies largely) by modest tax cuts linked with either saving up for the rainy day or investing in growth. It wasn't much but then every penny saved at that income level means a lot as opposed to the ones that live in the clouds in India. Officially there are about 500,000 High and Ultra High Net Worth families (My Guess 5,000,000 at least) of which only 10% really end up paying taxes in excess of Rs. 1 million. The Budget has just left this lot alone and rightly so for logical reasons.

It was labeled as the Budget of Hope and that's exactly what it delivered. No promises but a possibility that if all goes as per plan then the good days promised will hopefully come. In a way it gave a lot without giving anything and I think that's exactly what one can hope for now if the Nation wants to repair itself and prepare itself for the next decade. Now Bud! do you Get it?